Goldman Sachs, a global investment banking, securities, and investment management firm, has analysed the current pricing trends across the UK’s property and casualty (P&C) insurance sector, suggesting that profitable growth opportunities will remain abundant in 2025, despite moderating price momentum seen in 2024.

According to analysts, the evolution of price momentum remains a key investment focus, with expectations of continued growth across several major business lines.

The moderating trend in property pricing momentum is expected to persist into 2025, particularly for both non-catastrophe and cat-exposed property lines.

This outlook contrasts with the pricing expectations for 2024, as highlighted by Goldman Sachs in their review of a pricing forecast published by WTW on October 4th, which came ahead of Hurricane Milton’s landfall in Florida on October 9th.

Although the insured industry loss from the hurricane appears lower than initially anticipated, Goldman Sachs believes it will serve as a reminder of the ongoing trend of more severe and frequent weather-related losses. This should help stabilise price momentum in the sector, assuming underwriting discipline remains a priority.

In the cyber insurance market, analysts note that pricing remains relatively soft as 2025 approaches, though it has significantly declined from the elevated levels seen in 2022.

Analysts highlight Marsh’s report, which indicates that cyber rate reductions slowed since the first quarter of 2024, but policyholders with no recent loss history and strong cybersecurity controls typically experienced larger rate cuts. Goldman Sachs notes that cyber insurance, including price momentum, exposure, and premium growth, is a key topic in investor discussions, particularly regarding London-based insurer Beazley.

The company achieved around 6% premium growth in the first nine months of 2024, driven by higher volumes, despite the backdrop of war exclusion clauses.

Goldman Sachs expects Beazley’s cyber premium growth to continue at a pace of 6-7% year-over-year from 2024 to 2028, in line with the trend observed through 9M24.

For casualty lines, both the lower and upper ends of the price range predictions for 2025 have increased compared to 2024, which Goldman Sachs considers an incrementally positive shift. This is particularly relevant in light of the elevated social inflation trends in the U.S., which are expected to continue driving price increases in key casualty lines.

Similarly, the Directors & Officers (D&O) insurance market shows signs of price increases for 2025, with both the lower and upper ends of the price range predictions rising compared to 2024.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs, following discussions with Beazley and Hiscox, suggest that insurers are likely to maintain a cautious stance on D&O coverage, influenced by developments in capital market activities.

Goldman Sachs’ Macro 2025 outlook anticipates an uptick in capital market activity, which could further impact demand and pricing dynamics in the D&O space.

Overall, Goldman Sachs’ analysis indicates that, despite some moderation in price momentum, profitable growth opportunities remain solid for 2025 across key sectors.

The property, casualty, and D&O lines show potential for continued pricing growth, while the cyber market adjusts to previous highs. For investors, these trends underscore the importance of maintaining underwriting discipline and managing risk effectively to capitalise on emerging opportunities in the year ahead.

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